The Geopolitics of 2025 Will Be Played at Sea

The year 2025 marks a crucial turning point in the governance of maritime spaces. As global challenges intensify, the oceans are becoming the focus of geopolitical, economic, and environmental concerns. Major powers are increasing their efforts to control these critical areas, which are vital for the planet's future.

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Highly Strategic Maritime Areas

Oceans and seas cover more than 70% of the Earth’s surface, playing a fundamental role in global trade, climate regulation, and biodiversity. They are also a source of strategic natural resources, such as hydrocarbons, rare earth elements, and fisheries, which attract significant interest.

In 2025, tensions are rising in several strategic regions: the South China Sea, rich in resources and a vital trade hub; the Arctic, increasingly accessible due to melting ice; and the Indian Ocean, essential for energy routes. These areas have become arenas of confrontation between states, as Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) are contested. The buildup of military fleets in these regions increases the risk of armed conflict.

Key maritime routes, such as the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz, hold unparalleled strategic importance, with major implications for global trade. Even minor disruptions in these chokepoints can cause sharp rises in energy and goods prices.

The Militarization of Maritime Spaces

The militarization of maritime areas is accelerating, involving both major powers and smaller nations. China, for instance, continues to expand its military bases in the South China Sea, building artificial islands with strategic facilities. The United States, in response, is strengthening its presence in the Indo-Pacific region with intensified naval exercises alongside its allies.

Smaller nations are also enhancing their maritime capabilities to protect their economic and strategic interests. For example, Vietnam and the Philippines are investing in maritime surveillance technologies and naval fleets. Meanwhile, India is increasing its patrols in the Indian Ocean to counter China’s growing influence.

This militarization includes the proliferation of submarines, marine drones, and missile systems, making maritime spaces increasingly contested. These developments heighten the risks of escalations and tensions in already fragile zones.

Toward Strengthened Maritime Governance

To address these challenges, global maritime governance is gradually being strengthened. In July 2025, the Oceans Summit in Nice, the highlight of the United Nations’ “Year of the Sea,” will gather representatives from over 150 nations. This event aims to develop multilateral agreements to regulate maritime economic activities, reduce pollution, and protect underwater biodiversity.

A key focus will be the establishment of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) to preserve critical ecosystems. Efforts will also include commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from maritime transport, which accounts for nearly 3% of global emissions.

Additionally, the French government, through its “Shared Oceans” initiative, advocates for the creation of protected marine zones and stronger measures against overfishing. These initiatives, combined with innovations like renewable marine energy, aim to reconcile economic exploitation with environmental preservation.

The Growing Impact of Climate Change

Climate change is worsening the vulnerabilities of the oceans. Rising sea levels directly threaten coastal areas and island nations, while ocean acidification endangers marine ecosystems. Key species like coral and fish are at risk, jeopardizing global food security.

Scientists warn that without immediate action, some effects could become irreversible. Warmer waters are fueling extreme events like cyclones and floods, causing massive population displacements. These disasters are deepening social and geopolitical inequalities, especially in developing countries.

These environmental crises require coordinated international action. Scientists and policymakers at the Oceans Summit will advocate for urgent solutions to slow these trends and build ocean resilience.

The Ocean: A Global Arena for Cooperation and Conflict

The oceans sit at the crossroads of power struggles, cooperation, and planetary survival. While significant diplomatic progress is expected at major international meetings, rivalries between nations remain strong. The militarization of waters, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, raises growing concerns about global security.

Managing marine resources and protecting biodiversity must be balanced with the economic and strategic interests of major powers. Emerging technologies, such as robotic exploration of the seabed and wave energy production, could redefine these balances in the coming years.

The future of the oceans depends on nations’ ability to overcome their differences and build fair and sustainable maritime governance. Initiatives launched in 2025, like the Oceans Summit, must lay the groundwork for concrete and long-term commitments.

The oceans, as a global heritage, have the potential to become a model for international cooperation. By joining forces to protect the seas, nations can ensure global security and prosperity while leaving a positive legacy for future generations. The open question remains: will we collectively rise to this decisive challenge?

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