A fragile victory for the CDU/CSU
With 28.6% of the vote, the CDU/CSU remains Germany’s leading political force, but its lead over the AfD has significantly diminished since the last elections in 2021. Back then, the gap between the two parties was almost twice as large. Now, the CDU/CSU faces a challenge: how to govern without losing ground to the rising far right?
Friedrich Merz, the conservative leader, has ruled out any alliance with the AfD. This means he must negotiate with other parties to form a viable governing coalition—a difficult task, given the weakened Social Democrats (SPD) and declining Greens, which complicates the formation of a stable majority.
AfD’s unprecedented electoral success
The biggest shock of this election is the meteoric rise of AfD, which achieved its best result since its founding in 2013. Jumping from 10% in 2021 to 20.8% today, the far-right party is now Germany’s second-largest political force, a historic shift that underscores the growing nationalist sentiment and opposition to migration policies.
AfD ran an aggressive campaign focused on immigration, national sovereignty, and opposition to the European Union. Its rhetoric resonated strongly, especially in eastern Germany, where distrust of traditional parties is at its highest.
Adding to the party’s momentum was unexpected international support: figures like Elon Musk and allies of Donald Trump openly expressed their approval of AfD’s positions.
However, despite its rapid rise, AfD remains politically isolated. No mainstream party is willing to form a coalition with it, preventing it from directly influencing the government for now.
What’s behind this political shift?
Several key factors contributed to AfD’s surge and the struggles of traditional parties:
- Economic dissatisfaction: Inflation and energy crises have shaken public trust in the current government.
- Migration crisis: Immigration was a central issue in this election, and AfD capitalized on growing concerns among German voters.
- Growing Euroscepticism: More Germans, especially in rural and industrial areas, feel abandoned by Brussels and are turning against the EU.
What’s next for Germany?
Now, Friedrich Merz faces the challenge of forming a coalition. Potential partners include the SPD, the Greens, and the liberal FDP, but ideological differences will make negotiations difficult.
Meanwhile, AfD’s rise poses a long-term challenge to the traditional political order. Although no major party is willing to cooperate with the far right, how long can this stance hold? If AfD continues to gain ground, the political landscape may be forced to adapt.
This election marks a turning point for Germany, where the far right’s growing influence is reshaping politics. The country’s future will depend on how the CDU/CSU and other parties respond to this challenge.
